Must Be Global Warming
Despite the lack of satellites in 1887, nineteen tropical cyclones were detected. Undoubtedly a number more were missed.
Four hurricanes hit the US that year, among seventeen which hit between 1886 and 1889. Four years in a row, almost one hurricane hit the US every month during hurricane season. Joe Romm would be absolutely hysterical if that happened now.
It has been almost 800 days since any hurricane struck the US.
You do realize they use different metrics to consider if a Hurricane exists today than they did then. Also the Hurricane Hunter planes were grounded that year so the figures could be off by up to 50%. I have to be extra careful during Hurricane season because if I leave the fan on in my barn to long it will be counted as a tropical storm! Even though I live at 35 north because the tropics have expanded due to Global Warming! 😉
It has been almost 800 days since any hurricane struck the US.
Global Warming alarmiusts continue to tell us more severe weather will be happening. So, they are wrong.
The substantial increase in Atlantic basin cyclone activity (ACE index is in the 140s and rising with Tomas and perhaps a few more to come…) has nothing to do with CAGW and everything to do with oceanic and atmospheric cycles and patterns. The rest of the world is sub-normal for such activity and is part of the clues that are available, once we rid ourselves of the constant association of CAGW with everything.
The earth’s climate is a combination of pretty complex systems and that one, tiny part of one system controls (like a thermostat) the whole process? Not a credible possibility because it is clearly not supported by observed facts.
Yeah it’s credible because doubling co2 causes a very significant energy imbalance. The mainstream theory is that the climate changes reacts to that energy imbalance mostly through an increase in temperature. The alternative one is that the climate changes mostly by an increase in clouds and a reduction in sunlight absorbed by the Earth. Global warming vs global darkening if you will.
But either of these effects are significant and will have impacts on various other properties of the climate (such as humidity) and such areas are strongly tied to weather including hurricanes. So I would indeed expect changes in co2 to affect hurricanes. Whether the change is of frequency, intensity or changes to the typical path of hurricanes.
Sorry! No! there is nothing more than theory to support your claim that this occurs in the real world.
We have X amount of energy entering the earth system with variations, however minor. Then we have the restrictive influence of the ocean atmosphere long term weather patterns which describe all the historic climate the globe has experienced before so called human intervention. Recently a theory was introduced claiming a magic bullet struck and natural weather patterns were over ridden by CO2 induced changes. One minor problem with that is that natural weather patterns still control global temperatures and nothing in the real world supports CO2’s contribution.
Theories are nice for theoretical consideration but evidence is needed in real world situations. Of course the major problem with the CO2 theory is that it has been falsified, or at least those claims of what it will do have been proven wrong.
I did not wish to imply that increasing [CO2] would or could not have an effect on atmospheric characteristics or climatic results. The greenhouse effect is near saturation, theoretically, but how a change of a few ppm in atmospheric composition will affect climate globally is still to be determined empirically. The models don’t seem to have got it right, yet.
From my observation, hurricanes live and die on shear and dry entrained air much more than any other factor, including SSTs and divergent air. (MJO pulses etc.) The obvious lack of correlation between any hurricane aspect and the [CO2] does not deny a causal link but it sure makes it appear like an inconsequential one.
Actually it would cause a very small change in the energy balance. We are already 40% of the way there and not much has happened.
serioussam says:
October 31, 2010 at 9:43 pm
Yeah it’s credible because doubling co2
CO2 has been doubled?
serioussam says:
October 31, 2010 at 9:43 pm
Yeah it’s credible because doubling co2 causes a very significant energy imbalance
You are talking about computer models. And computer models are inaccurate:
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Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications….
http://www.scribd.com/doc/904914/A-comparison-of-tropical-temperature-trends-with-model-predictions
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The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported
http://www.scribd.com/doc/4364173/On-the-credibility-of-climate-predictions
serioussam,
Peer reviewed work showing computer climate models that speak authoritatively about what will happen with double CO2 are found to be inaccurate. They do not account for all variables. The largest variable, a variable that comprises 95% of all greenhouse gasses, is H2O. These computer models that are being trusted are exceptionally poor at accounting for H2O.
This 2 part video series will give more detail:
part 1
part 2
The atmosphere CO2 levels at that time was supposed to about 280 ppmv.
LOL
AGWers look on the bright side. Odds are with a hurricane hitting the U.S. next year, even though it will be lower than (real) average season, probably about 9-11 named. And when a hurricane does hit the U.S. you can blame it on AGW!