Posting On X

I haven’t been posting much on my blog recently, mainly because WordPress is too slow.

I am generating a large amount of content on X however at Tony Heller (@TonyClimate) / X

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Fifty Years Ago Today

 

July 31, 1976, thousands of visitors gathered in Colorado’s Front Range to celebrate the state’s centennial weekend. Campers, vacationers, and locals filled cabins, motels, and campsites along Highway 34 in the Big Thompson Canyon.

By midnight, it turned into the site of one of the deadliest flash floods in US history.

AUG 1 1976; Big Thompson River Canyon (1976 Flood); (Photo By Dave Buresh/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

A slow-moving thunderstorm stalled directly over the upper watershed of the Big Thompson River, anchored by light easterly winds pushing moist air up against the steep mountainside. In less than four hours, the storm dropped 12 to 14 inches of rain near Drake and Estes Park—nearly an entire year’s worth of precipitation for the region.

The steep, narrow granite walls of the canyon offered no outlet for the torrent. The dry soil could not absorb the volume, sending a massive wall of water rushing downstream toward Loveland.

Around 9:00 PM, a wall of water estimated between 19 and 20 feet high tore through the canyon at speeds exceeding 20 miles per hour. The torrent carried heavy debris, full-grown trees, boulders, automobiles, and entire homes along with it.

The disaster struck with minimal warning:

  • Casualties: 144 people lost their lives, and 5 victims were never found.
  • Destruction: More than 400 homes and cabins were destroyed, alongside 250 commercial structures.
  • Infrastructure: Over 23 miles of U.S. Highway 34 were completely washed away, trapping survivors on isolated rock ledges overnight.

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Truth Or Consequences

The Rio Grande has been dry in Albuquerque for most of the past two months.

Rio Grande NR Alameda, NM – USGS Water Data for the Nation

Further south, water has been steadily released from Elephant Butte Reservoir into the Rio Grande for the past few months, but the reservoir is down to 1% of capacity and they stopped releasing water today.  The Reservoir is located at Truth or Consequences, New Mexico.

https://data.usbr.gov/rise/#/item/329

Rio Grande Below Elephant Butte Dam, NM – USGS Water Data for the Nation

“Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs to supply nearly 178,000 acres of irrigated farmland across the Hatch, Mesilla, and El Paso valleys.”

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US Climate Trend Maps

US trends since 1930, taken from Index of /pub/data/ghcn/daily/hcn/

Daily maximum temperature.

Summer daily maximum temperature

Winter daily maximum temperature

Daily minimum temperature.

Summer daily minimum temperature.

Winter daily minimum temperature

Number of 90F days.

Precipitation

Snow

data

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Declining Spring Snow Cover In Northern New Mexico

March snow cover in the mountains between Tres Piedras and Tierra Amarilla, New Mexico has declined sharply over the past fifty years, and on March 28 this year there was no snow on the ground.

Hopewell (532) – Site Information and Reports

March snow cover at the Los Alamos Ski Area, where I learned to ski, has largely disappeared.

Quemazon (708) – Site Information and Reports

There was still lots of snow there on May 5, 2019.

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You Can’t Fool Mother Nature

People building mega-data centers in the desert seem to imagine they can defy the laws of thermodynamics.

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Cattle And The Climate

Blaming cattle for bad weather is the latest in a long line of climate superstitions. During the 16th century they blamed bad weather on witches.

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One Atomic Bomb Per Hour

They are planning on building a 10 GW data center here in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and generating all of the electricity on site..

“Wyoming is poised to become an artificial-intelligence powerhouse after Laramie County commissioners last week unanimously voted to move forward with the construction of a 1.8 gigawatt data center designed to eventually scale up to 10 gigawatts, which would be the largest single AI campus in the U.S. “

Wyoming County Approves Construction of What Could Become the Largest Data Center in US – Inside Climate News

I asked Google Gemini to calculate the energy balance.

To calculate the true environmental heat flux of a 10 GW compute footprint, we must look at both sides of the meter: Silicon Dissipation and On-Site Generation Inefficiency.

  1. The Silicon Compute Load (100% Thermal Conversion)

    According to the First Law of Thermodynamics, energy cannot be destroyed. Inside the computing cluster, electrical energy is fed into transistors to drive bit transitions. Aside from a negligible fraction of a percent that escapes as light through fiber optics, 100% of the computing wattage degrades into Joule heating due to electrical resistance.

The mathematical representation of continuous heat generation (E_compute) over one hour (t = 3,600 seconds) is:

E_compute = P * t

E_compute = (10 * 10^9 J/s) * 3,600 s = 3.6 * 10^13 Joules (36 Terajoules)

  1. The On-Site Generation Load (50% Thermal Inefficiency)

    To deliver 10 GW of usable electricity to the servers, an on-site power plant must burn fuel. If the plant operates at a standard 50% thermal efficiency (eta = 0.50), it means that for every 1 Joule of electricity produced, 1 Joule of raw heat is lost directly to the environment through the plant’s own cooling towers and exhaust stacks.

The total fuel energy input required (P_input) is:

P_input = P_compute / eta = 10 GW / 0.50 = 20 GW

Thus, the heat wasted purely by generating the electricity on-site (E_generator) over one hour is:

E_generator = 10 GW * 3,600 s = 3.6 * 10^13 Joules (36 Terajoules)

  1. Total Combined Heat Footprint

    Adding the heat from the chips to the waste heat from the on-site generators gives us the total hourly thermal output (E_total):

    E_total = E_compute + E_generator

    E_total = 3.6 * 10^13 J + 3.6 * 10^13 J = 7.2 * 10^13 Joules (72 Terajoules)

Quantifying the Yield of an Atomic Bomb

To provide context for 72 Terajoules, we examine the energy released during a nuclear explosion. The “Little Boy” weapon detonated over Hiroshima was a uranium-235 fission device. In physical reviews, the energy metrics of nuclear weapons are calibrated in kilotons (kt) of TNT equivalent.

By international scientific convention, one gram of TNT releases exactly 4,184 Joules. Therefore, a standard metric kiloton of TNT translates to:

1 kt TNT = 4.184 * 10^12 Joules

Forensic assessments by Los Alamos National Laboratory place the explosive yield of the Hiroshima detonation at approximately 15 kilotons. To determine the absolute energy yield (E_bomb) in Joules, we compute:

E_bomb = 15 kt * (4.184 * 10^12 J/kt) = 6.276 * 10^13 Joules

The Hourly Comparison: Side-by-Side Analysis

We can now calculate the explicit ratio (R) between the hourly heat emission of our 10 GW megastructure (with on-site generation) and the total yield of the Hiroshima bomb:

R = E_total / E_bomb

R = (7.2 * 10^13 J) / (6.276 * 10^13 J) = 1.147

Metric Comparison:

  • Energy Release for 10GW Data Center Complex (Every Hour): 7.2 * 10^13 Joules

  • Energy Release for Hiroshima Atomic Bomb (Total Yield): 6.276 * 10^13 Joules

  • TNT Equivalent for 10GW Data Center Complex (Every Hour): 17.2 Kilotons

  • TNT Equivalent for Hiroshima Atomic Bomb (Total Yield): 15.0 Kilotons

When factoring in the 50% thermal efficiency of on-site generators, a 10 GW data center campus generates 114.7% of the total energy of the Hiroshima bomb every single hour. Stated another way, the facility matches the energy footprint of an atomic bomb every 52 minutes.

A study done of existing smaller data centers shows a massive data heat island effect extending many kilometers away.

(PDF) The data heat island effect: quantifying the impact of AI data centers in a warming world

Steel plants generate a lot of heat, but are located near bodies of water which dissipate the heat and minimize any local temperature increases. Without water to transport and evaporate the heat away, the air is going to become very hot.

From Gemini:

“Because water’s volumetric heat capacity is roughly 3,500 times greater than that of air, a tiny temperature shift in a body of water represents a massive reservoir of energy. Mathematically, transferring the exact amount of thermal energy required to raise a specific volume of water by just 2°C into an identical volume of air would trigger an astronomical temperature spike of nearly 7,000°C—well beyond the 6,000°C mark.

To put this into perspective, this concentrated thermal energy would make that volume of air hotter than the radiant surface of the sun, which burns at approximately 5,500°C.”

The Rawhide Generating Station near us in Colorado uses water to evaporate away the heat.  I took this picture at -10F on February 14, 2021 and you can see the water evaporating off the cooling pond and out of the stack.

Evaporating water is the only viable way to remove large amounts of heat from the local environment, but these data centers are being sold based on the idea that they won’t use water.

Mayor: Data center water use in Cheyenne is far below city supply, other local industries | News | wyomingnews.com

We are having the warmest and driest year on record here in Cheyenne, and there is no snow at any of the locations we depend on for our water supply.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/all/USW00024018.dly

NWCC iMap

Besides the noise, pollution and heat, this will greatly increase the competition for energy, which will drive up fuel prices.

Cheyenne to host massive AI data center using more electricity than all Wyoming homes combined | AP News

In order to house the workers, they are building hideous four story apartment complexes all over town.

Report projects worsening housing crisis in Cheyenne | Local News | wyomingnews.com

Our community and environment are being destroyed by these data centers, but big money seems to get whatever they want.  “Consent of the governed” no longer seems to be a valid concept in America.

“Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed”

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New Video : Analyzing Oil And Gas

Gas and oil production made simple.

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Is Antarctica Melting?

Other AI websites answer questions like this based on the information it finds on the Internet. At visitech.ai we do real analysis with actual data, and provide a more accurate answer. Contact tony@visitech.ai for more information.

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High Speed Analysis And Visualization

At visitech.ai we have created the world’s fastest data analysis, visualization and presentation graphics tool. It reduces work time from hours to a few minutes. Contact tony@visitech.ai for more information.

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