Earlier I reported on the record Arctic ice in the DMI database, which goes back to 2005. Well the story gets better. Bremen is now reporting a record high for the date in their Antarctic database, which goes back to 2003.
So let’s review the facts :
- Hansen says it is the hottest year ever.
- PIOMAS says the ice is the thinnest on record
- Barber says the remaining ice is rotten
- Serreze said that we might hit a record low this year
An meanwhile, the ice at both poles is at a recent record high and growing at a record rate.
Someone is FOS, and it isn’t the ice.
Ahhh, come on! That’s cherry picking. You’re only supposed to point out when ice is at a low. That way you’d never be a cherry picker. To point out this record high business is just more cherry picking by those who refuse to acknowledge the consensus. Just get assimilated, would ya!
;o)
Still cherry picking. Still you failed to answer this before.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/10/dmi-arctic-ice-extent-close-to-a-record-high/#comment-3803
Still you keep churning out the crap like no one noticed.
Brendon,
Your data sites are a little old, just like your whinging. Move on.
If you want someone to “move on”, perhaps you could ask Steve to stop saying that things are at “record highs” based on a few years’ data. Maybe that would cut back on the whinging.
Steve is simply (ironically) using the same terminology as warmists.
For example NSIDC press release:
“This September, Arctic sea ice extent was the third-lowest in the satellite record, falling below the extent reached last summer. The lowest- and second-lowest extents occurred in 2007 and 2008″
In case you do not see mypoint”
The data series began 1979 (not specified).
2007 was lowest, 2008 was higher, 2009 higher than 2008.
Statistically that puts 2009 around the median value and furthermore makes it the 3rd member of a directional series of data, making the press release misleading at best.
Do you understand ?
NS: The NSIDC are using ALL of the reliable satelite data on sea-ice extent, not a subset of the last six years, so as the NSIDC are using ALL of the data, it is by definition not a cherry pick. Steve chose to use the DMI dataset rather than all of the available satelite data, which means a cherry pick is possible as a choice was made.
Also “2007 was lowest, 2008 was higher, 2009 higher than 2008. Statistically that puts 2009 around the median value” is clearly incorrect. The median value depends on all of the satelite data from 1979 to the present, the value for 2009 was way below the median.
If you look at the data, it is not unusual to have three years where the minimum sea ice extent increases each year, even though there is a long term trend of reduction in minimum sea ice extent. The reason is that interannual variability is larger than the annual effect of the trend. That is why trends and records over a handful of years are meaningless.
ChrisD
You mean like calling 1998 the hottest year ever, or the last 12 months the hottest 12 months ever? Is that the few years of data you are referring to? Certainly that’s what you meant.
NS says:
October 12, 2010 at 11:46 am
The lowest- and second-lowest extents occurred in 2007 and 2008
Yes, you’re right. As anyone can see it doesn’t apply when it is about them. That is clearly seen in their reaction to this post.
Amino – that is a straw man, nobody is saying 1998 was the hottest year EVER. They might say it was the hottest year in the instrumental record, but that is very different.
Then you better tell Michael Mann not me.
You are funny.
Dikran Marsupial says:
October 12, 2010 at 12:56 pm
Amino – that is a straw man, nobody is saying 1998 was the hottest year EVER. They might say it was the hottest year in the instrumental record, but that is very different.
I can only laugh when I see this. Do I need to look up Michael Mann’s email for you or can you find it for yourself? Tell him about his straw man.
You are able to find James Hansen’s email too without my help too, aren’t you?
You guys love to throw around these terms like ‘straw man’.
Dikran,
Any time you see someone saying something is unprecedented you better write to them and tell them to stop it with the straw men statements.
There is a bit of difference in a private email and a claim made for public consumption. I suspect it would have been obvious to the intended recipient of the email what Mann meant. Can you give an example where someone has made a formal scientific claim that 1998 was the warmest year ever? I rather doubt it.
ummm….what?
keep tap dancing. keep tap dancing.
Amino wrote: “Any time you see someone saying something is unprecedented”
I would ask them to qualify what the meant by “unprecedented” and if it turned out that it meant “unprecedented in the last six years” I wouldn’t be overly impressed and I would explain why it was a meaningless cherry pick. That would apply the same whichever “side” were making the argument. The trouble is the other side of the argument would generally say things like “in the instrumental record” or “since satelite measurements became available”, which is a pretty reasonable answer (unlike “in the DMI dataset” when you know perfectly well that there is a longer satelite dataset which would show your conclusion to be false).
I know, I know, global warmers would never intend to give the impression that 1998, or the decade of 2000-2009, or the last 12 months, were the hottest ever. They just meant it was the hottest on the instrumental record but it’s been hotter than that before, say like, during the Medieval Warm Period. They have gone to such lengths to make sure there was no misunderstandings in what they wanted the public to think of what they were saying. That’s always the message they have given. I know that’s what they have always meant. Everybody could tell that’s what they mean. They’ve always, yes always, made that so clear there was no chance that any could ever, never, no, not in a thousand years, have gotten the impression that the heat in those years was unprecedented.
Thanks Dikran, for setting the record straight.
Yes Amino, the scientists generally do do their level best to make sure their claims are qualified correctly so that the public do not misunderstand them. However some seem determined to misunderstand anyway! ;o)
BTW the evidence for the MWP being warmer than today is at best equivocal, Mann’s isn’t the only paleoclimate proxy record. IIRC even the IPCC only claims that it is “highly likely” (or words to that effect) that current temperatures are warmer than the MWP.
Besides, any averagely informed person will know that there have been warmer periods than today going back thousands of years, you only need to watch the occasional documentary on the TV to know stuff like that, so I don’t thing the general public are going to be confused about what is mean by something being a maximum in the instrumental record.
Amino, if you look at the “Hottest year Ever : Franny Healed The Planet!” you’ll find it seems that perhaps Hansen didn’t actually say “hottest year ever” (as the article we are commenting on suggests) and that if you look at the original sources, the qualification on it only being the hottest year on the instrumental record was made clearly and explicitly.
Yea Steven, how can you let people Brendon enjoy their self flagellation if you keep cherry picking like that. I mean only nearly eight years of data. Where’s the doom in that?
It seems that Mann made “Baked Alaska” is FOS… and should be avoided… just like his “Yellow Snow” articles…
Brendon, why so poor tone? (You sound like a desperate alarmist!!)
Steven wrote: “Both Poles Now Have Recent Record High Ice Extent”
The bremen goes back to 2003 and the DMI to 2005. For this data both are at record for the present day. And Stven is correct: Who would have expected this in a year of record heat? Its a little odd, and it supports the opinion, that nature is about to take a huge turn from warm to cold.
K.R. Frank
The hypocrisy of ‘global warming’ can be seen in the comments in this thread. It’s only fair game to bring up records when ice is near a low. They love to do it then. It’s party time for them then.
ChrisD.
Perhaps you global cooling deniers could stop banging on about ‘record lows’ based on a few years data.
Nah, thought not.
I hope it stays warm until I get my water pipe burried to my well……… darn, thought not, 3 degree C this morning. The only global warming around my place is the fire in the wood stove, and darn it that cycles also.
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It’s worse than they thought. Now off the charts!
http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/3052/11icecover2010popupcrop.jpg
;o)