Daily Archives: September 8, 2010

The Real Science Hockey Stick

Page views on this site appear to be very sensitive to atmospheric CO2. A small increase in CO2 over the last week has caused a large increase in page views – after being flat for the last 13 centuries. In … Continue reading

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Reading Romm

Joe reports breathlessly : Major analysis finds “less ice covers the Arctic today than at any time in recent geologic history.”

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First Blast of Arctic Air Headed For Canada?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html NCEP is forecasting the first intrusion of Arctic air over Canada next week. If the forecast is correct, temperatures over the Northwest Passage will drop below minus 5ºC. It also looks like the US northeast may be getting some … Continue reading

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Are We Headed For An Ice Free Arctic?

Linear trend maps indicate that since the start of the satellite record, summer ice extent is on the decline. Does this mean that we are headed for an ice-free Arctic?

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Arctic Forecast Verification

My June forecast of 5.5 million JAXA is now off by 9%.

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NCEP Verification

The blink comparator above shows the difficulty in forecasting Arctic weather and ice. For the last two weeks, NCEP has been forecasting cold, calm weather over the western Arctic by the second week of September. The September 9 target forecasts … Continue reading

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In New York, It Is Illegal To Defend Your Family

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2010/09/07/long-island-man-arrested-for-defending-home-with-ak-47/ UNIONDALE, N.Y. (CBS 2) — He was arrested for protecting his property and family.

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PIPS Verification

There has been a lot of discussion on the various threads about whether or not PIPS thickness calculations include concentration. It is pretty clear from the blink comparator above that PIPS does consider concentration. Areas of lower concentration correspond to … Continue reading

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Censorship Award For The Day

http://www.web-censorship.org My buddy Joe Romm wrote up a nice piece about me today, but for some reason doesn’t seem to want to print my responses.

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PIOMAS Verification

Below is the PIOMAS forecast vs. actual. Red represents areas where they over-predicted melt. Green is the opposite. Their forecast error is 20%, compared to my 7%. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/seasonal_outlook.html

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