The rising temperatures are likely to cause the melting of at least half the Arctic sea ice by the end of the century. A significant portion of the Greenland ice sheet—which contains enough water to raise the worldwide sea level by about 23 feet (about 7 meters)—would also melt.

Computer models project how the Arctic ice cap may melt over the next century. The blue perimeter (marked by arrows) is actual ice in September 2002. The top illustration projects how the ice may shrink by 2030, the middle shows what may be left by 2060, and the bottom indicates what it could look like in 2090. Some computer models project all the ice will be gone within a century. A combination of computer models indicates that at least half of today’s ice cover will have melted within a hundred years.

The consequences of such a massive meltdown of northern ice would be dramatic, according to the study.

• Low-lying coastal areas in Florida and Louisiana could be flooded by the sea. A 1.5 feet (50-centimeter) rise in sea level could cause the coastline to move 150 feet (45 meters) inland, resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental impact in low-lying areas.

• The health and food security of some indigenous peoples would be threatened, challenging the survival of some cultures.

• Should the Arctic become ice-free in summer, it is likely that polar bears and some seal species would become extinct.

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