My Arctic Forecast

The map below (modified by me to include August changes) shows the approximate current state of old, thick multi-year Arctic sea ice (MYI)

In a few weeks, there will be a ~50% increase in the amount of MYI and an 80% increase in the amount of the oldest/thickest 4+ year old ice.


The next map predicts approximately the state of the MYI on October 1.

 ScreenHunter_10209 Aug. 27 09.49

The Arctic is making a rapid return to the state it was in during the 1990s. The map below shows MYI on week 37 1998. Note that there is more MYI in western Arctic now than there was in 1998.


About Tony Heller

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96 Responses to My Arctic Forecast

  1. rah says:

    The denier will deny this of course all the while forgetting that the Arctic was supposed to be “virtually ice free” by now and the NW passage open for business with no ice breakers required.

    Never mind that there are still large areas with 5+ year old ice and all signs point to a steady recovery since the 2012 low point when all those predictions were being made.

    • cfgjd says:

      Area and extent graphs point to reversal of the “recovery”…but volume decides whether the DEATH SPIRAL is back on..

      • The only important metric is the amount of multi-year ice.

        • cfgjd says:

          Amount = volume, not area. The MYI is much much thinner today than 10, 20 or 30 years ago.

        • Utter nonsense

        • rah says:

          Absolutely in an environment where storms, waves and tides cause the loss of ice much faster than temperatures do. This the deniers claimed was not true! Despite the FACT that temperatures in 2012 came no where near to explaining the massive loss of ice, they claimed that the cyclonic storm that hit was not unusual at all and happened many times before! So I guess Reggie and his blow torch were in that storm, because that is when the majority of ice loss in the Arctic happened during 2012.

          Fact is that the storm of 2012 was an usually powerful one.

          Fact is that since that time Arctic ice has been recovering despite the FACT it was stated it was in a “death sprial”. Fact is that the massive gain in the Greenland ice sheet this year indicates that there is no warming atmosphere in that area. Despite the PDO spiking in it’s warm phase and the blob that hung out off the coast of Alaska all last winter there resulting in a record low maximum there is still plenty of ice in the west Arctic right now too and the NW passage is not open and does not look like it will be again this year.

          And here is the difference in muti year ice between 2012 and 2015


          The Guardian of course holds out the hope that this melt season “could wipe the ‘recovery’ ” Just as they rooted for a “death sprial” and reported that the ski areas in the Scottish HIghlands would have a tough time because of lack of snow during the winter.

          That is until even the ski lift towers were buried in snow in some places last winter.

        • AndyG55 says:

          rah, The recovery would actually be for the Arctic to not have any summer sea ice at all..

          That would take it back to the conditions of most of the first 3/4 of the Holocene. (called the Optimum.. disrupted by “Neoglaciation” about 3000 years ago then dropping to the depths of the freezing, inhospitable LIA)

          The world has spent the last couple of hundred years “recovering” from the Little Ice Age, and these moronic idiots want that recovery to stop and reverse.. DOH !!!!

          Its utter and absolute STUPIDITY and IGNORANCE on their behalf.

    • Andy says:

      After 2007 they also said it showed a steady recovery which means either you have not been watching events as long as I have or have a short memory.

      When there is an exceptional year it always marches back to the average decline.


      • AndyG55 says:

        You mean it recovers a bit more out of the coldest period in human history, heading back toward the much more beneficial ice free times of the first 3/4 of the Holocene.

        That’s what you were trying to say, wasn’t it. !

  2. cfgjd says:

    How can facts be “nonsense”? Are there denialists around here?

    • Why do you keep denying?

    • Hugh says:

      Wanna bet when its melts?

      The Arctic won’t melt in the next three weeks, so your hero failed already.

      • cfgjd says:

        Yes, if the volume at the end of summer reaches a clearly lower level as in 2014 the “recovery” has stalled. Time for DEATH SPIRAL again?

        • gator69 says:

          The same “death spiral” that mother nature has sustained for most of the past 9000 years? 😆

        • AndyG55 says:

          You still refuse to admit that for most of the first 3/4 of the Holocene, summer sea ice in the Arctic was mostly NON-EXISTENT.

          The only reason it is currently so high is because we are only just out of the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years.

          And UNFORTUNATELY we look like heading back down. That will be the death spiral …
          … especially for many elder people in northern climates suffering from energy poverty because of the moronic actions of the climate change agenda in decimating the reliable coal fired electricity supply systems.. And those deaths will be on the heads of the alarmistas and their deceitful followers… like you…
          How does your conscience live with itself… purposely causing poverty deaths…. yuck !!!

          You still haven’t said where you choose to live….
          I bet it is somewhere warm. and not in Siberia.

        • Chris Barron says:

          “Time for DEATH SPIRAL again?”

          Who can die twice ?

          The volume anomaly graph is ‘relative to 1979-2013’….which is absolutely meaningless. I know it is meaningless, because those graphs are of the type used to compare a changing situation to a steady state situation……but there has never been a steady state climate situation on earth in the whole of it’s history.

          It surprises a lot of people when they first realise that perhaps the set of climate parameters which describe the ‘normal’ climate on earth are not necessarily ones which suit human life very much at all….except of course if you read the bible, because then god makes sure the earth is good for people forever and ever..

    • catweazle666 says:

      You would not recognise a fact if it scuttled under your foetid, noisome bridge, leapt up, and fastened its teeth in your snout.

      Begone, troll.

  3. cfgjd says:

    Also the claim that this years arctic sea ice situation is close to 1998 is moronic (and/or a lie) as we know from tracking arctic ice volume (see graph posted above by oppti) that in 1998 the sea ice volume was approximately 10000km3 higher than today. One could construct a CUBE from the DISAPPEARED ICE that would be 21 KILOMETERS high & extending into the STRATOSPHERE.

    • AndyG55 says:

      The claim that lower Arctic sea ice is anything to worry about is from idiots who have not bothered to do any study of Arctic ice history..

      If they had, they would know that the current level is anomalously HIGH compared to mot of the last 10,000 years.

      But you keep basking in your propaganda IGNORANCE..
      Its what you do…. Its who you are… its part of your putrid soul.

    • AndyG55 says:

      “One could construct a CUBE from the DISAPPEARED ICE that would be 21 KILOMETERS high & extending into the STRATOSPHERE”

      So, not that much ice

      Thanks….. or do you not understand big numbers and think that piece of propaganda pap is scary ?? You got it from SkS or somewhere like that, I assume. !

      • Jason Calley says:

        “Thanks….. or do you not understand big numbers and think that piece of propaganda pap is scary ?? ”

        Thanks, Andy, for saying what I was only thinking. Yes, a cube 21 kilometers is not that much compared to a planet, or even compared to an ocean. I think the same thing every time I read about “24 X 10^22 joules of heat!!!” That is too tiny to even reliably measure. I once posted a small comment on (I think it was) Climate Progress about how small a temperature change that represented. The response? Something on the lines of “there are a lot of ways to make a very large number look small.” Seriously; that was their answer… Sigh!

    • AndyG55 says:

      Just enough to cause a rise of about 1.3cm in the oceans….

      wow.. not too scary now, you poor scarred little child. !

  4. gymnosperm says:

    ” there’s no hiatus in planetary warming since 1998, that’s a skeptic hoax”

    Yes, the satellites that actually measure the entire atmosphere and show no warming are hacked by the military/industrial/corporate complex to dupe the innocent public into digging more of that evil black slimy stuff so they can watch tv and not wear their fingers to the bone.

    The satellites are a hoax, like the moon landing.

  5. rah says:

    Hey that white stuff isn’t supposed to be there!
    ARCTIC OCEAN (July 30, 2015) The fast attack submarine USS Seawolf (SSN 21) surfaces through Arctic ice at the North Pole. Seawolf conducted routine Arctic operations. (U.S. Navy photo)

  6. cfgjd says:

    The arctic sea ice death spiral seems to be back! ~10000km3 less ice volume than in 1998 – the horror…:

    • AndyG55 says:

      1.3 cm to the oceans in 17 years.. SCARY, especially for a child mind like yours.

      No death spiral…. that only happens when the sea ice increases. Death from COLD.

      Gees, you really are a seriously moronic, ignorant little troll.

      Even after the TINY drop since 1998, it is still nowhere near the “no sea ice” norm of the first 3/4 of the Holocene.

      Move to Siberia if you are scared of the warmth, little yapping Chihuahua

      • cfgjd says:

        The recovery in Arctic sea Ice is practically gone and the so-called death-spiral conditions have returned. This blog post made an embarrassing flat-out lie claiming that we’re close to 1998 conditions again, even though we have about 10000km3 = 2400 cubic miles less Arctic sea ice than back then. Lying is bad.

        ps. the probable reason for less sea ice during parts of the holocene are differences in insolation compared with present day. Now we are in the Anthropocene and poof the ice is almost gone in just a couple of decades. There are no “cycles” that can explain this.

        pps. tone down the ad hominems, you’re being a dick

        • AndyG55 says:

          “you’re being a dick”

          From your that hilarious.. were you in a house of mirrors when you typed that ?

          All you have is meaningless repetitive rant with zero understand of history.

          There is no such thing as the anthropocene except as a propaganda lie and fabrication.

          You haven’t bothered to do any research or learning about the first 3/4 of the Holocene or attempted to understand that we are actually only just out of the coldest period of the last 10,000 years……. you talk from base-level ignorance all the time because it all you have.

          That destroys your childish little scam.. and you know it.

          That is why YOU DENY THE FACTS.

    • rah says:

      “cfgjd says:
      August 28, 2015 at 7:58 am

      The arctic sea ice death spiral seems to be back!” Get help now! I’m beginning to wonder if the guys in the white coats missed giving you your regular dose of Thorazine!

      • AndyG55 says:

        Sleep time down here..

        See if you can get this mental chihuahua to admit he lives in a warm climate and is just yapping for the sake of yapping.

        His grip on reality is tenuous to say the least.!!

        • rah says:

          Drinking my morning coffee here! I have other work to do. Getting a new cloths washer and dryer set. Delivery should be here in the next couple hours. Spent part of yesterday updating some plumbing with new hookups and also helping my neighbor building a new 40′ x 20′ picnic shelter.

          Gawd I hate plumbing. Especially when your hooking new stuff into old stuff. I tried taking the supply hose lines for the washer off the old brass valves to put new ones on and just couldn’t do it! It was like those hose connections were welded on. Even used a plumbers torch to heat the hose connections to try and break them loose! No luck! Finally I said to hell with it and took the old brass valves off with the old hoses still attached and replaced the valves with color coded chromed ones and then put new high quality woven stainless steel sheathed supply hoses on. So, hopefully, I’m all set for when the new units arrive. Then, when my neighbor is ready, it will be back out to work on the shelter again. Putting on the nylon reinforced roofing felt and the metal roof will use up most of the rest of my Friday off call I suspect.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Darn modern appliances..
          4 months ago I replaced my olde fridge because it was rusting out..

          The new one has now stopped freezing food.. seems it has lost its gas and somehow I have to get it replaced under warrantee…. so the battle begins to actually make it happen. !!

          Meanwhile.. no fridge. Its sort of like an introduction to renewable energy , I guess.

        • rah says:

          In my experience, out of all appliances, refrigerators are the biggest crap shoot and stoves/ovens the least likely to give one headaches due to premature failure!
          Replaced a top of the line GE fridge after only 3 years. It’s sitting in my garage and one of these days I’ll get the new circuit board in it to make it my garage fridge but it was the last GE appliance I’ll ever buy. Firestone tire lost me as a customer when I was 17 y/o and I’ve never bought a anything with Firestone/Bridgestone on it again. In fact I won’t let them put Firestone tires on the company truck I drive either. Screw me once, shame on you! Screw me twice, shame on me.

  7. cfgjd says:

    There is no “recovery” in Arctic sea ice. Did someone order a DEATH SPIRAL just before the COP in Paris? Oh dear…

  8. AndyG55 says:

    Death spiral would be an increase…..

    There is no increase in Arctic sea ice… and no loss..

    It has stabilised at a level FAR above the Holocene mean, unfortunately.

    Those idiots who predicted LOSS of sea ice have been proven monumentally INCORRECT.
    Like the temperature.. the loss has stalled.

    Unfortunately a recovery to the zero sea ice of most of the Holocene has stalled, and it looks like the freezing times of the LIA may be about to re-appear.. That would be a massive problem for all humans on Earth.

    As for Paris.. at that time, the Arctic sea ice level will again be within a small amount of NORMAL

    Look at the data for December.. if you dare. … NOTHING HAS CHANGED.!!

    Your childish death spiral is a cli-fi MYTH !!

    • cfgjd says:

      The sea ice extent is crashing which means that the recovery is being cancelled as we speak:

      …and arctic sea ice volume will be nowhere near “normal” in December, so stop lying that it will.

      • AndyG55 says:

        The sea ice extent is NOT crashing .. Its going to end up about the same as the last few year (apart for the cyclone mashed 2012)

        And Arctic sea ice loss is BENEFICAL.. sea ice gain is the real problem, because it takes us back towards the levels of the LIA.. which is not good at all. !!

        Why are you soooooooooo brain-washed that you cannot admit this FACT??

        Why are you pushing the stupid scare that loss of Arctic sea ice is a problem?

        Very ignorant of you, to say the least

        The Arctic sea ice is definitely be about normal compared to the last few years in December. Its land locked and there has been an increase in thicker ice this year.!

        Do you really want it to be normal for the LIA? Northern countries frozen over, people dying from energy poverty and the collapse of the renewable NON-energy supplies…
        Is that really what you want.. if so , you are one very sick minded little deviant. !!

        You ask the people who have to live up there,, they would definitely prefer to have an open Arctic in summer.. the BENEFITS would be massive for the region.

        But you don’t live there do you child-mind. You choose to live somewhere WARMER… don’t you, little hypocrite 😉

        • cfgjd says:

          The sea ice extent IS crashing, in the 1980’s the yearly extent minimum was about 7.2 million km2 and today we’re at 4.58 million km2 with weeks of the melting-season still ahead of us. The difference in minimum area is not quite as large as the land-area of the US but it is in the same ballpark. Only CONEHEADS would claim that this kind of rapid chance is insignificant.

          The recovery of 2013/2014 is being cancelled as we speak.

        • AndyG55 says:

          The 1970-80 was a cold period, and a trough in the basic climate/ocean current cycle.

          Why are you soooo ignorant that you choose to start at a cold period. That is propaganda cherry-picking… all you have.

          Even you just ADMITTED that Arctic sea ice levels were much LOWER for most of the Holocene, yet you still haven’t the basic intelligence to realise that the Arctic sea ice is anomalously HIGH at the moment and that lower sea ice would be preferable for all..

          You really haven’t understood anything at all, have you.

          I thought for a moment I may have got past your moronic brain-washing and got you to actually think for yourself…….but nope… not going to happen. !!

      • Chris Barron says:

        Well, Mr ‘ I know what normal should be’ ….. what should normal be ?

        • AndyG55 says:

          From this graph,..

          “Normal” for the very short period of data we have is somewhere between 12 and 14 Million km² in mid December.

          Since the 1998 ElNino, it seems to be around 12 – 12.5 m km² each year.

          It will almost certainly end up somewhere in that region again this year.

        • cfgjd says:

          “Normal” used to be about 10000km3 higher than today…but that was before THE DEATH SPIRAL!

        • AndyG55 says:

          I was hoping you would post that..

          See that bit at the end.. …

          Time to do some research on climate cycle, child-mind. !!

          Like all alarmist propagandists you have to start at the coldest period in the last 50 or so years.

          Normal was the first 3/4 of the Holocene , when the Arctic , by your admission, was often ice free in summer.

          If you think the LIA and the climb out of it was “normal” you are even more of a fool that I thought you were.

          You really should start signing your posts ” from Siberia” since you seem to want the world to freeze its butt off. !!

          Where , approximately, do you choose to live again ??????

          Still that COWARDLY hypocritical refusal to answer.

        • Chris Barron says:

          ““Normal” used to be about 10000km3 higher than today…but that was before THE DEATH SPIRAL!”

          WHEN ? Christ, don’t you have any data ? WHEN was 10000km^3 the norm ? how long was it the norm for ? what was the typical volume prior to that norm….. Do you get the difficulty of the task you are being asked to perform before you jump in with some figure of unfathomable vagueness.

          The only constant is change.

          Once again if you please. What is ‘the norm’, when and how was ‘the norm’ decided ?, Is the norm affected by the Milankovitch cycles or is it representative of the volume across complete cycles ?

  9. cfgjd says:

    “Arctic Ocean sea ice proxies generally suggest a reduction in sea ice during parts of the early and middle Holocene (∼6000–10,000 years BP) compared to present day conditions. This sea ice minimum has been attributed to the northern hemisphere Early Holocene Insolation Maximum (EHIM) associated with Earth’s orbital cycles.”

    I doubt we reached a new insolation maximum in the past 30 years.

    • AndyG55 says:

      The latter half of last century WAS a series of solar maximum.

      Yet we are still only just above the coldest period of the whole Holocene.

      What we needed was for those solar maxima to continued to keep pushing the temperature up….

      … but unfortunately they have gone. 🙁

      I hope for your sake you live somewhere warm.
      (I’m sure you choose to live somewhere warm because of your cowardly refusal to answer that question).

      If the sun continues as solar scientists predict, those northern countries near the Arctic are in for a world of freezing discomfort !

    • AndyG55 says:

      “Arctic Ocean sea ice proxies generally suggest a reduction in sea ice during parts of the early and middle Holocene (∼6000–10,000 years BP) compared to present day conditions.”

      Good.. you are starting to discover the truth !!!!! 🙂

      See… the world is still here !

      Also hunt for Fram Strait biomarkers etc.

      Do some of your own research and please.. do try to LEARN !!!

    • AndyG55 says:

      Maybe also look up the word “Neoglaciation” which lead eventually to the freezing times of the LIA.

      I give you 2, maybe 3 years of research to catch up to reality !!

      But I’m here to help if you want pointers. 😉

    • AndyG55 says:

      For one moment, I though one of your two remaining functional brain neurones fired for a second..

      Then you proved me wrong… so sad.

  10. cfgjd says:

    Little Ice Age ended at about 1850, i.e. 130 years earlier than the DEATH SPIRAL.

    • AndyG55 says:

      The world has spent the last couple of hundred years “recovering” from the Little Ice Age, and moronic idiots like you want that recovery to stop and reverse.. DOH !!!!

      Its utter and absolute STUPIDITY and IGNORANCE on your behalf.

      Have you moved to Siberia to escape the warming yet, little worm ?

      Until you decide to leave Cairns, you are just flapping your jaw.

      • cfgjd says:

        So how is it possible that the LIA “ended” in 1850, but simultaneously it’s only ending now? If you can give an authoritative reference (peer reviewed of course) arguing that LIA is actually only ending now, I’m willing to listen.

        • AndyG55 says:

          You say its been warming since 1850.

          Then you DENY that we have climbed out of the LIA..

          DOH !!!

        • AndyG55 says:

          Do you really DENY that there has been warming since 1850 ?

        • AndyG55 says:

          Make up your mind, if you have one of your own.

          Either we continued to warm after the theoretical end of the LIA in 1850.. or we didn’t.

          Which one.?

        • AndyG55 says:

          Darn , I can’t find that HadCrut graph you posted.

          It showed a pretty constant climb since the LIA.
          (they got rid of all the peaks and troughs because they were inconvenient)

          A continued RECOVERY, so to speak.

          If that was real, then it is something that we can be TRULY THANKFUL FOR.

          Or do you really prefer a Siberian type climate ?

        • Dave G says:

          AndyG keep asking cfgjd were he prefers to live over & over again! that’s how I got rid of my AGW nut case after 2 years of me asking “what melted the ice to form the finger lakes” every time he contacted me, never an answer! good riddance

  11. AndyG55 says:

    And we have just finished climbing out of it.. THANK GOODNESS. !!

    Unfortunately, Sol seems to think we need another dose. 🙁

    It was the coldest period of the whole Holocene, and we are currently only just a small amount above that level, and nowhere near the highly beneficial warmer period of the early Holocene or the bumps in the “Neoglaciation” that were the RWP and MWP.

    No wonder there is SO MUCH Arctic sea ice !!!

    How do those ancient fishing harbours on the north coast of Russia cope nowadays, one has to wonder.. They don’t all have nuclear powered ice-breakers available , you know. !

    • Snowleopard says:

      All very true, but what’s worse is the trend.

      The Roman Climactic Optimum (or Roman Warm Period) lasted nearly seven centuries with temperatures much warmer than today. Temperatures for about a century before and after this period were about comparable to modern temperatures.

      The Medieval Warm Period lasted about four centuries with temperatures somewhat warmer than today, but colder than the Roman period.

      The “Modern Warm Period” has had about a century of temperatures not as warm as the Medieval period and seems to be fading already.

      This trend suggests that we are rapidly (in geological time) approaching the end of the Holocene and a full glaciation period is returning. Instead of worrying about a small beneficial increase in CO2 and a negligible chance of runaway warming, we should be preparing for the inevitable cold period.

  12. Jim Hunt says:

    Pull the other one Tony. It’s got bells on.

    • gator69 says:

      What parts of “MYI” and “millions of starving children” do you not get? Time to stop digging killer.

    • AndyG55 says:

      Gees, Its still going to end up 4 Million km² ABOVE the sea ice levels for first 3/4 of the last10,000 years. Way to much sea ice to make the Arctic area useful.

      Imagine how BENEFICIAL it would be for those living in that region if they could actually use the Arctic ocean for at least some part of the year, LIKE THEY USED TO.

      Come on Jimbo.. admit the historic reality, you gutless worm.

  13. Andy says:

    Hows this year going compared to 2006 on lowest extent ? As far as i recall this year is tracking 2006 but you haven’t done a post on this for a while.

    Can you give us an update ?


  14. Andy says:

    AndyG55, stop going on about the Holocene, you weren’t there, so getting it 3rd hand out of a book and nothing to do with these current posts is tiresome to the extreme. You love the Holocene, we are quite frankly bored by you rabbiting on about it.

    It’s not relevant so I am not sure what tenuous point you are trying to make when we are comparing the last 30 years and seeing if there are any trends.

    We are talking about small short term fluctuations here.


    • AndyG55 says:

      I couldn’t give rat’s a*** if you are bored with the actual reality of world history.

      That is your problem.

      Once Jimbo and the other alarmist trolls have the guts to admit this reality.. I’ll stop.

      All you need to know is that Arctic sea ice is actually anomalously high at the moment, and that the real scare will be if it starts to increase again.

      Do… you… under… stand. !!!

    • AndyG55 says:

      These morons, and you seem to be one of them, are trying to say that the current slight loss of Arctic sea ice is something to worry about and are trying to link it to global warming or something. Its ignorant and its deceitful, and mostly…

      …..THEY ARE WRONG..

      It is not anything to worry about,

      and it is not linked to anything to do with CO2

      It is to do with a very slight molehill in the global temperatures after a climb from the COLDEST period in human history.

    • AndyG55 says:

      And it is totally relevant, that is why ignorant alarmista, like you seem to be, hate it so much.


      You should try some at some stage, if you can manage it.

    • AndyG55 says:

      And until the reality sinks in and is admitted ……. I will keep repeating it.

      I’ll just keep pounding against the BRAIN-WASHED IGNORANCE of the average climate change cultist.

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