Lots of really bad Arctic sea ice forecasts this year, but the Met Office really stunk the place up. Current extent is 5.2 million km².
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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It looks like it won’t even be within the huge margin of error of 3.4 +/- 1.5.
More proof of the bias at the MO.
There should be an investigation into this error.
No doubt the excuse will be increased variability due to “climate chaos”, making it impossible to forecast accurately.
Yes but here in the UK earlier this summer UKMO convened a meeting of the brightest minds and concluded that all that melting ice was going to give us a poor summer (they’ve kept getting wrong for the past ten years) Then summer here of course has been pretty good and the NH ice regrowth exceptional, UKMO are pathetic, absolutely pathetic.
They’ll probably blame it on Arctic ice melting that made ………………………….
It looks like it won’t even be within the huge margin of error of 3.4 +/- 1.5.
More proof of the bias at the MO.
Their margins are wonderful. For the 5 to 10 day forecasts they predict temps with a range that would cover them if summer or winter suddenly arrived in that period. As an example for tuesday week day temps will be between 16 and 28 °C (61 to 82 F) and night temps 11 to 19 C ( 52 to 66 F).
There you go! Hard to be wrong like that. The ice one is even better 44% range and they still can’t get it right. IMBECILES. The poor old brits pay £millions / year for that.
Is that the MO or the BBC?
I know that the BBC forecasts are based on the MO but didn’t think that the MO forecasted after 5 days.
The amazing thing is that the people at the BBC actually think that information is useful to someone.
Too right. Years ago before UKMO turned into Pravda they were excellent and just dealt with the weather. Now they cover AGW, the national health service and no doubt healthy eating coming your way soon.
The UKMO use the ‘Texas sharpshooter’ method of forecasting.
There’ll be champagne and bonuses all round in Exeter when the result comes out. They nailed it!
Extra rations for the political officers
Which measure of ice extent are those predictions based on?
The minimum extent based on IARC-JAXA looks like being above 5 million.
Hey I voted 5 million!
Me and my possessed monkey voted 6.66. Are we winning?
Soon children will not know what accurate weather forecasting is!
Very good
Steve where is that from?
Doh…………. got it…now,
With the +/- 1.4 error margin, the UK Met Office can claim success on a figure of 4.9. With roughly 10 days until the upturn, 4.9 is actually a possibility. So come on people, credit where it is due. 🙂
Neven’s Blog was even worse in the July report:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/july